People keep asking me what I think of the TPP. Given that, aside from a few leaks, I haven't seen the text, I'm a little unsure how to answer. It kind of depends what's in it. Nonetheless, I offered some preliminary thoughts here. An excerpt:
The TPP has the potential to push further in particular areas of trade sensitivity, such as supply management for dairy products in Canada and sugar market access in the United States. The TPP will be much more valuable if it can take on these long-standing trade barriers. It remains to be seen whether this will happen.
Also:
... the TPP's "WTO minus" provisions -- the absence of trade remedies and subsidies, and weak dispute settlement -- have a negative impact. Generally speaking, if a TPP party's government has a concern about another TPP country's protectionist measures, it probably has to go to the WTO with its complaint. Thus, the WTO remains the indispensable international organization for keeping trade friction from turning into full-blown trade wars.
To sum up: The TPP's value depends on how much liberalization is in it; and the TPP is unlikely to displace the WTO as the most important trade treaty.
