The Increase in WTO Disputes

Back in July, I blogged about how many WTO disputes there had been so far in 2012.  At this pace, I said, we will see 24 complaints in 2012.  As it turns out, I was pretty close, but actually underestimated the total.  The final tally is now in: 27 complaints in 2012.

That's a pretty significant increase over recent years, even if you count things by informal "matters" (i.e. similar cases grouped together).  Here's the annual number of complaints since the beginning of the WTO: 

Year Number of DSU Complaints, by year 2012 27 2011 8 2010 17 2009 14 2008 19 2007 13 2006 20 2005 12 2004 19 2003 26 2002 37 2001 23 2000 34 1999 30 1998 41 1997 50 1996 39 1995 25

Year Number of DSU Matters, by year 2012 20 2011 7 2010 12 2009 9 2008 13 2007 7 2006 17 2005 10 2004 18 2003 20 2002 23 2001 20 2000 28 1999 22 1998 34 1997 31 1996 27 1995 16

 So 2012 had the most complaints and most matters since 2002.

What's going on here?  A surge in protectionism, and an increasing number of WTO complaints as a response?  More WTO Members, so more countries to complain about? Let's look at the list of 2012 complaints to see if there are any obvious explanations: 

Dispute Name	DS Number	Complainant(s)	Respondent	Request Date	Agreements
China - Measures Imposing Anti-Dumping Duties on High-Performance Stainless Steel Seamless Tubes ("HP-SSST") from Japan	454	Japan	China	Dec 20, 2012	AD, GATT
Argentina - Measures Relating to Trade in Goods and Services	453	Panama	Argentina	Dec 12, 2012	GATS, GATT
European Union and Certain Member States - Certain Measures Affecting the Renewable Energy Generation Sector	452	China	European Union	Nov 05, 2012	GATT, SCM, TRIMs
China - Measures Relating to the Production and Exportation of Apparel and Textile Products	451	Mexico	China	Oct 15, 2012	Agriculture, GATT, SCM, Protocol
China - Certain Measures Affecting the Automobile and Automobile Parts Industries	450	United States	China	Sep 17, 2012	GATT, SCM, Protocol
United States - Countervailing and Anti-Dumping Measures on Certain Products from China	449	China	United States	Sep 17, 2012	AD, GATT, SCM
United States - Measures Affecting the Importation of Fresh Lemons	448	Argentina	United States	Sep 03, 2012	GATT, SPS, WTO
United States - Measures Affecting the Importation of Animals, Meat and Other Animal Products from Argentina	447	Argentina	United States	Aug 30, 2012	GATT, SPS, WTO
Argentina - Measures Affecting the Importation of Goods	446	Mexico	Argentina	Aug 24, 2012	Agriculture, GATT, Licensing, Safeguards, TBT, TRIMs
Argentina - Measures Affecting the Importation of Goods	445	Japan	Argentina	Aug 21, 2012	GATT, Licensing, Safeguards, TRIMs
Argentina - Measures Affecting the Importation of Goods	444	United States	Argentina	Aug 21, 2012	GATT, Licensing, Safeguards, TRIMs
European Union and a Member State - Certain Measures Concerning the Importation of Biodiesels	443	Argentina	European Union	Aug 17, 2012	GATT, TRIMs, WTO
European Union - Anti-Dumping Measures on Imports of Certain Fatty Alcohols from Indonesia	442	Indonesia	European Union	Jul 27, 2012	AD, GATT
Australia - Certain Measures Concerning Trademarks, Geographical Indications and Other Plain Packaging Requirements Applicable to Tobacco Products and Packaging	441	Dominican Republic	Australia	Jul 18, 2012	GATT, TBT, TRIPS
China - Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties on Certain Automobiles from the United States	440	United States	China	Jul 05, 2012	AD, GATT, SCM
South Africa - Anti-Dumping Duties on Frozen Meat of Fowls from Brazil	439	Brazil	South Africa	Jun 21, 2012	AD
Argentina - Measures Affecting the Importation of Goods	438	European Union	Argentina	May 25, 2012	Agriculture, GATT, Licensing, Safeguards, TRIMs
United States - Countervailing Duty Measures on Certain Products from China	437	China	United States	May 25, 2012	GATT, Protocol, SCM
United States - Countervailing Measures on Certain Hot-Rolled Carbon Steel Flat Products from India	436	India	United States	Apr 12, 2012	GATT, SCM
Australia - Certain Measures Concerning Trademarks, Geographical Indications and Other Plain Packaging Requirements Applicable to Tobacco Products and Packaging	435	Honduras	Australia	Apr 04, 2012	GATT, TBT, TRIPS
Australia - Certain Measures Concerning Trademarks and Other Plain Packaging Requirements Applicable to Tobacco Products and Packaging	434	Ukraine	Australia	Mar 13, 2012	GATT, TBT, TRIPS
China - Measures Related to the Exportation of Rare Earths, Tungsten and Molybdenum	433	Japan	China	Mar 13, 2012	GATT, Protocol of Accession
China - Measures Related to the Exportation of Rare Earths, Tungsten and Molybdenum	432	European Union	China	Mar 13, 2012	GATT, Protocol of Accession
China - Measures Related to the Exportation of Rare Earths, Tungsten and Molybdenum	431	United States	China	Mar 13, 2012	GATT, Protocol of Accession
India - Measures Concerning the Importation of Certain Agricultural Products	430	United States	India	Mar 06, 2012	GATT, SPS
United States - Anti-Dumping Measures on Certain Shrimp from Viet Nam	429	Viet Nam	United States	Feb 22, 2012	AD, DSU, GATT, Protocol of Accession, WTO
Turkey - Safeguard Measures on Imports of Cotton Yarn (Other than Sewing Thread)	428	India	Turkey	Feb 13, 2012	GATT, Safeguards

 Based on this list, I'm not sure whether 2012 tells us much about the trend.  One thing that jumps out is all the complaints involving Argentina: 8 of them.  That seems unlikely to become a regular occurrence.  Without that Argentina surge, the year looks a lot more normal.

In addition, there are 10 disputes involving China.  That might be slightly more than usual, but it's a little less out of the norm than what happened with Argentina.

I also see more activity from developing country Members and from Japan and the U.S. than there has been in recent years.

And there are a couple recently acceded Members -- Ukraine and Viet Nam -- bringing cases.

I'm going to wait another year before I conclude that there has been any long-term change here. 

ADDED: I've been double-checking this data, and upon further reflection, I changed the number of "matters" in 2012 from 21 to 20.